Silver : The Quiet Metal

October 2010 would be next opportunity providing all follows history; Bull Markets have three stages , first a slow upswing , second consolidated upswing when Investors desperate to find 'Parking Space' for money, (we are in beginning to middle of stage 2. Stage 3 Public and anyone else all gripped by 'don't want to miss out' like a Real Estate / Dot Com / Tulip / boom.

Third stage is a growing bubble, irrational exuberance. Mentioned in evening news programs..."Today Tonight" "Should you be buying Gold?" Koshie holding the Breakfast Show in a Gold Vault. Third stage starts when people become aware of this small corner of the worlds 30 Trillion Economy, possibly strikes during a Sovereign Debt Default or recognition US Dollar is not a Safe Haven.

Note: commentators as applied to Gold rarely use the words “Safe Haven” anymore. Plenty of people ready to buy scrap Gold, very few selling and no big talk from Media about Gold.

Silver, you would not know the stuff exists lest of all that its very cheap, the Media is owned by the Elite, Silver is a very small market. Some estimate 200 Million Ounces actually available in World Stock piles. Half a Billion $ would dry up the Market.

My thinking is when no - one is talking about something, especially Mainstream Media then its probably worth a look at. Physical Possession is only real safe way to own Metals. Stocks are very vulnerable as Silver is Mined as a By Product of Tin , Lead etc mining. Stocks are not a safe option.

Deflation is probably the only scenario where Gold & Silver could be adversely effected. Even during the Great Depression after initial drop during Deflation phase Gold gained 30% after meddling by FDR and JP Morgan.

Little known fact: JP Morgan avoided duty in Civil War by paying $300 to have another serve in his place. This was Legal, can't have the Elite's kids being blown to bits by Bullets Daddy manufactured.

Today Silver is $18.40 USD per Oz, Aust Dollar @.86, that's $22 Australian, for an ounce in a 100 Ounce Bar, a machined coin is $26 to $27 for one Ounce. Buying a 10 Oz Coin the Machine price drops to $25.50.
If buying the 1 Kg coin the cost per Oz is $24.17. It would not take much for Silver to reach an Australian Spot price of 24. Per Oz. ($19.50 US per Oz with Au Dollar at $.81 to the US $ = Aussie Spot of $24 per Oz in Bullion form not a shiny 10 Oz coin.

The price of converting Bullion into Coin is not fixed, at present its about $5 an ounce, if Silver doubled in price the 'machine costs go up as % of cost of coin. Hence Silver coin of 1 Oz at $30 + $9 to $12 in overhead,

Britain is putting a 20% GST on all Silver coins, US is preparing $600 'declaration' limit (Name & Tax Please).

Ideally Silver and Gold will continue upward at steady pace, 14% up this last year. A good Investment is one that has a low probability of loosing 50% -100% of value. Silver is never going to loose 100%; highly unlikely 50%, 10 or 20% on ups & downs always a possibility.

Long Term.... 2 to 5 years, the price should Triple. There is 1 Oz of Gold for every 15 of Silver in the ground. The price of Silver should normally reflect this ratio. Presently it takes 67 Oz Silver to Buy 1 of Gold (67:1). Ratio at (15:1) = $80 per Oz, that just reflecting the fundamental supply ration. If reserves are as low as we think they are ???

"The Commodity Exchange Inc. said there was another 64.5 million ounces stored in COMEX warehouses in the Eligible category, which silver could presumably be coaxed into the Registered class at some silver price.

All together there were about 114 million ounces in both classes of inventory in COMEX warehouses which is about 16.4% of all the silver contracts sold as of June 22.

Historically only a small fraction of open silver contracts are actually held to maturity and delivered into. Currently it would take something on the order of 9,900 contracts standing for delivery to exhaust all the Registered silver now held by the COMEX. That is equivalent to just under $900 million worth of silver at $18.00 USD. "

It would not take much to fire up Silver...One Billionaire

http://goldsilver.com/newsletters/newsID/8580/ref/1